realestate

The money has allowed otherwise-strapped Americans “to pay for essentials, including rent. The National Multifamily Housing Council said 96% of renters made payments in June, nearly matching a year earlier, when unemployment was near a 50-year low,” per the WSJ. “That has prompted some business lobbyists, including the Mortgage Bankers Association, to ask Congress to extend the enhanced benefits or offer other relief. Without it, the association fears apartment building owners will default on their mortgages.”

The payments won’t continue forever. But several economists say they remain necessary for now. 

"We appreciate that job openings are very scarce right now, so the benefits probably aren't suppressing employment much, but that will change when states are able to re-open properly,” Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson wrote in a Monday note. Rather than simply chop the $600 payment down unilaterally, Shepherdson argues for scaling the amount of the payments to beneficiaries’ prior earnings.

But even Shepherdson says that change can wait, while an extension of the support for 30 million Americans cannot. Shepherdson writes ripping the rug out from beneficiaries would cause a “catastrophic plunge” in their incomes — an outcome he projects negotiators will avoid.

Indeed, the University of Michigan’s Curtin agrees that the most urgent need now is preserving the lifeline to the unemployed. The longer-term challenge facing them, and the broader economy, “is not going to ease significantly until we have a vaccine or an effective treatment.”

Latest on the federal response
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A payroll tax cut will be in the GOP's next emergency relief proposal.

But some Republican lawmakers are fuming about its inclusion: “The emerging GOP coronavirus relief bill appears likely to embrace some of [Trump’s] key priorities, despite opposition from within his own party, including a payroll tax cut, very little aid to state and local governments, and measures tying school funding to the reopening of classrooms,” Erica Werner, Jeff Stein, Robert Costa and Seung Min Kim report.

“Some of these provisions are already sparking pushback from key Senate Republicans, and an even bigger showdown with Democrats appears inevitable. That clash could come [today], when [Mnuchin] and White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows are set to meet with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) and Senate Minority Leader Charles E. Schumer (D-N.Y.) for the first bipartisan talks on what will almost certainly be the last major coronavirus relief bill before the November elections. Mnuchin and Meadows will also meet with Senate Republicans on Tuesday as they seek to quell any discontent.”

A possible warning sign from a committee chair: “I think you’d better ask me after [Tuesday] so we can hear from the administration if they’re really serious about it,” Sen. Charles E. Grassley (R-Iowa) told our colleagues about the inclusion of a payroll tax cut.

Where things stand for now: “Mnuchin said that the White House wants the bill to amount to roughly $1 trillion in new programs, though officials are expected to use budget gimmicks to make the initial package slightly larger. Still, Democrats were looking for a much bigger bill."

Always listen to Paul Kane:

Coronavirus fallout
From the U.S.:

Oxford vaccine is safe and promising, according to early human trials: “A University of Oxford group and the British-Swedish pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca reported Monday that their coronavirus vaccine candidate, on which the U.S. and European governments have placed substantial bets, was shown in early-stage human trials to be safe and to stimulate a strong immune response,” William Booth and Carolyn Y. Johnson report from London.

Bad poll numbers push Trump to bring back covid briefings: “Trump’s announcement that he would resurrect the White House coronavirus task force briefings is the culmination of weeks of debate among his aides about how best to turn around — or explain away — his administration’s failed response to the pandemic," Toluse Olorunnipa and Josh Dawsey report.

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Florida's largest teachers union sues Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) over school reopening: “The suit from the Florida Education Association asked a judge to stop [DeSantis] and Education Commissioner Richard Corcoran from requiring the return of in-person schooling without first reducing class sizes and ensuring that educators have adequate protective supplies,” Matt Zapotosky reports.

Lawmakers want more scrutiny over a $700 million Treasury loan to a trucking company: “A bipartisan congressional oversight body is raising questions about a $700 million emergency loan awarded by the Treasury Department to a U.S. trucking company,” Jeff Stein and Erica Werner report. Mnuchin earlier this month announced an unusual deal in which the government would take a 30 percent stake in trucking giant YRC in return for a substantial loan. Commissioners are raising alarms that taxpayers are likely to lose money.

From the corporate front:

Southwest says 28 percent of workers seek leaves or exits: “Delta Air Lines said it was reviewing its pilot staffing after 2,234 bids for early retirement,” Reuters's Tracy Rucinski and David Shepardson report. The Southwest requests represent around 24 percent of pilots and 33 percent of flight attendants.

Airlines are facing the end of normal business travel, which may never fully return: “At stake is the most lucrative part of the airline industry, driven by businesses that accepted -- however grudgingly -- the need to plop down a few thousand dollars for a last-minute ticket across the U.S. or over an ocean … Business travel makes up 60 percent to 70 percent of industry sales, according to estimates by the trade group Airlines for America,” Bloombe

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